Iran is facing a complex dilemma as hardline conservatives grow increasingly uneasy with the country’s inaction while Israel escalates its attacks on Hezbollah, Iran’s closest ally. During his address to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, President Masoud Pezeshkian criticized Israel’s military actions in Gaza and warned that its aggression towards Lebanon must be addressed, yet he adopted a more conciliatory tone compared to his predecessors.
“We seek peace for all and have no intention of conflict with any country,” Pezeshkian stated, also expressing Iran’s willingness to resume negotiations regarding the 2015 nuclear deal with Western powers.
In an unusual display of restraint, senior Iranian officials and commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have tempered their rhetoric regarding potential retaliation against Israel for its actions against Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which have received significant Iranian support. Iran has been instrumental in transforming Hezbollah into Lebanon’s most powerful armed force, providing crucial military resources and training.
Recent incidents have raised tensions further; Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was severely injured in an explosion at the embassy in Beirut, which Iran has attributed to Israeli actions. Despite this, Iranian officials have refrained from issuing direct threats of retaliation. This is in stark contrast to previous incidents, such as the Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which resulted in immediate Iranian missile attacks against Israel.
President Pezeshkian remarked that Israel aims to provoke Iran into a wider conflict, asserting that Iran is prepared to de-escalate tensions if Israel does the same. However, this stance has drawn criticism from hardline factions within Iran who believe the president should adopt a more confrontational approach.
Power dynamics in Iran remain complex, with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the IRGC holding the reins of strategic decision-making. Notably, Khamenei has not issued any threats against Israel during recent public addresses, a departure from his usual rhetoric.
Israeli officials have reported that Hezbollah has urged Iran to take action against Israel, yet Iran has reportedly advised caution, indicating that the timing is not conducive for such maneuvers.
Iran is caught in a precarious situation; while it grapples with a crippled economy due to U.S. sanctions and domestic unrest, a direct military response to Israel could provoke a broader conflict, potentially undermining the regime’s stability. Conversely, failing to act may signal to allied militias that Iran prioritizes its own survival over their interests, risking its influence across the region.