The conflict in Sudan is entering a critical phase as the Sudanese army intensifies its offensive against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This power struggle has particularly focused on the capital, Khartoum, and the contested western region of Darfur, with the RSF having maintained control over much of Khartoum since the war broke out in April 2023.
The Situation in Khartoum
Under the RSF’s rule, residents of Khartoum have faced extreme hardship. Reports of looting and human rights abuses are rampant, with the paramilitary group accused of committing acts of violence against women and arbitrary detentions of men. Those unable to flee have had to endure a precarious existence under the RSF, which has been known to use lethal force against families who resist its demands for property and compliance.
Army’s Offensive and Local Reaction
On September 26, the Sudanese army launched a significant offensive aimed at reclaiming territory within Khartoum. This military campaign has reportedly resulted in the recapture of several strategic points, including three key bridges. The army’s advance has been met with a mixed reaction from the populace, with many welcoming the army as liberators. However, concerns have been raised about the army’s tactics, including reports of summary executions of individuals perceived to be affiliated with the RSF.
The Path Forward
Experts suggest that the army’s efforts to regain control of Khartoum are motivated by the desire to secure a stronger negotiating position in future peace talks. Controlling the capital would likely boost the army’s morale and support its narrative of military progress. However, challenges remain, and it is unclear how much ground the army can realistically gain against the entrenched RSF forces.
The Situation in Darfur
Simultaneously, the RSF continues to exert influence in Darfur, where it has maintained control over most of the region. Reports indicate that the RSF is struggling to take el-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, which has seen fierce resistance. The ongoing conflict has created a humanitarian crisis, with an estimated 700,000 internally displaced persons at risk from both armed attacks and famine.
Conclusion
The battle for Khartoum may significantly shape the trajectory of the ongoing conflict in Sudan. As the army seeks to regain lost territory, the situation remains fluid, with the potential for increased violence and instability. Observers are keenly watching how this conflict evolves, particularly in relation to the RSF’s stronghold in Darfur and the implications for civilian safety.