A new study suggests the actual death toll in Sudan’s war may be far higher than recorded. Researchers estimate over 61,000 people died in Khartoum state alone during the conflict’s first 14 months, with violent deaths accounting for around 26,000—exceeding current UN estimates for the entire country.
The report, released by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine’s Sudan Research Group, emphasizes that starvation and disease are increasingly leading causes of death in Sudan as health and aid infrastructure collapse. The study used a capture-recapture sampling method, often employed in crisis scenarios where data is scarce, to assess unrecorded deaths, as well as survey data and social media records. The lack of hospital access, disrupted communication, and limited access to burial sites have all contributed to the challenge of tracking fatalities.
According to the research, deaths in Khartoum are now 50 percent higher than pre-war levels, with the UN reporting nearly 25 million people in urgent need of aid and famine affecting at least one displacement camp. The humanitarian impact extends beyond the capital, with displacement, hunger, and disease claiming lives in other war-affected regions.
Countless deaths remain unaccounted for as many hospitals, morgues, and cemeteries are inaccessible. The capture-recapture method compiled data from multiple sources, including a public survey on social media, a network of community activists, and obituaries posted online. “Our findings suggest that deaths have largely gone undetected,” said lead researcher Maysoon Dahab, who has used similar methods to estimate casualties in prior Sudanese crises.
Deaths from Khartoum, captured in the study’s three lists, represent only five percent of the estimated total. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) had recorded 20,178 deaths across Sudan in the same period, indicating that the death toll in Khartoum alone may surpass national estimates.
An official from the Sudanese American Physicians Association supported the study’s findings, noting the severe impact of malnutrition and limited healthcare. “Simple diseases are killing people,” said Abdulazim Awadalla, underscoring the vulnerability of a population weakened by prolonged food and medicine shortages.
In Omdurman, hundreds of makeshift graves have emerged near homes due to limited access to cemeteries. Undertakers report a sharp rise in daily burials as the conflict forces families to improvise burial sites. The Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) blame each other for the devastation, with both sides accused of targeting civilians and committing abuses that may amount to war crimes.
The study also highlights the indirect toll of the war, with diseases like malaria, cholera, and dengue fever on the rise amid limited access to medical care and nutrition. Malnutrition, especially among children and pregnant women, has led to weakened immunity and increased mortality.
Despite denials from both sides about impeding aid, Sudan’s humanitarian crisis worsens, leaving millions trapped between the violence and a crumbling health infrastructure. The international community faces a growing challenge in addressing the unseen cost of Sudan’s escalating conflict.