KYIV – Vladimir Putin has yet to deliver a full-scale retaliation for Ukraine’s drone assault on Russian airbases, despite days of heavy bombardment on Kharkiv and Kyiv. Western officials expect Moscow’s response will be intense and wide-ranging, but some analysts say Russia may already be near the limits of its military capacity.
One senior Western diplomat warned of a “huge, vicious and unrelenting” Russian strike. However, Michael Kofman, a military analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, suggested Russia’s capacity for escalation is “quite constrained,” as it has already been deploying large-scale firepower in recent weeks.
Ukraine’s drone attack, dubbed Operation Spiderweb, is reported to have damaged around 10% of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. German Major General Christian Freuding said over a dozen aircraft, including TU-95 and TU-22 bombers and rare A-50 surveillance planes, were hit as they were being prepped for attacks on Ukraine.
Although Russia retains 90% of its bomber force, Freuding noted the long-term impact: “The remaining planes will need to fly more sorties, meaning they will be worn out faster. Most importantly, there is a huge psychological impact. Russia will need to significantly upgrade its aircraft security.”
In response to Ukraine’s increasing aerial reach, Russia has ramped up strikes across Ukraine. In the Dnipropetrovsk region, a man was killed Sunday after Russian forces launched drone, artillery, and rocket strikes overnight. Homes, a kindergarten, and power lines were damaged in Synelnykivsky and Nikopol districts.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s drone campaign continues. Russian officials reported that nine Ukrainian drones were intercepted near Moscow early Sunday, temporarily halting flights at Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports. A separate drone strike caused a fire at the Azot chemical plant in Tula, injuring two people, and seven drones were shot down over Kaluga.
Amid the escalating violence, hopes for a major prisoner exchange are fading. Russia and Ukraine had agreed to release over 1,000 prisoners each and return the remains of 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers. But both sides now accuse each other of stalling. Ukraine claims Russia is “playing dirty games,” while Moscow says Kyiv has refused to set a date for the handover.
Ukraine’s POW coordination body said Russia’s proposed lists do not match the agreed terms. National Security Council official Andriy Kovalenko called Russian claims “not consistent with reality.”
As tension rises on multiple fronts, the long war between Ukraine and Russia continues to evolve, with neither side showing signs of backing down.