Despite Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs and fresh sanctions, sources say the Kremlin sees little incentive to end the Ukraine war before securing full control of four key regions.
MOSCOW, Aug 5 — Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to yield to U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest ultimatum demanding a ceasefire in Ukraine by Friday, sources close to the Kremlin have revealed. Despite Trump’s threat to impose sweeping new sanctions and 100% tariffs on countries that continue buying Russian oil—most notably China and India—Putin appears set on achieving Russia’s military goals first.
According to three insiders familiar with Kremlin discussions, Putin remains confident that Russia is winning on the battlefield and believes additional U.S. sanctions will have minimal impact after enduring over three years of economic penalties. His ultimate aim: the complete capture of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions—territories Moscow claims as its own.
“Putin believes that if he fully occupies those four regions, he can claim the war has fulfilled its objectives,” said James Rodgers, author of The Return of Russia. Kremlin sources say the Russian leader still values a possible reset with the West but places his war objectives above any desire to appease Trump.
While the two sides have met three times since May, negotiations are described by one source as largely symbolic, with little progress beyond humanitarian issues. Moscow says it’s open to peace, but its core demands—including Ukraine’s withdrawal from the four contested regions and acceptance of neutrality—remain unacceptable to Kyiv.
Still, signs of diplomatic movement remain. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is expected in Moscow this week amid heightened tensions, including Russia’s decision to abandon a moratorium on short- and medium-range nuclear missiles.
Trump, once known for praising Putin and proposing business ties, has recently adopted a harsher tone. He has slammed Russia’s bombing of Ukrainian cities and called Putin’s actions “disgusting,” while insisting that his tariffs and sanctions strategy is designed to stop the bloodshed.
On the battlefield, Russia has made modest but steady territorial gains, occupying roughly 502 square kilometers in July alone. Ukraine has lost about one-fifth of its territory overall, though Western and Ukrainian analysts say Russia’s summer offensive has been slowed by high casualties and difficult terrain.
Putin is reportedly aware of the political risks of ending the war prematurely. “He has staked his personal legacy on this war,” said Rodgers, adding that Putin sees himself as a defender of Russia’s interests against Western influence.
Sources suggest the Kremlin is wary of Trump’s unpredictability. “He’s made threats before and changed his mind,” said one insider. There is also skepticism that China would halt oil purchases from Russia, even under U.S. pressure.
Russia’s economy, while battered, has proven resilient. Foreign investment has plummeted, and around $300 billion in central bank assets remain frozen abroad. Yet the war effort continues, bolstered by weapons supplies from North Korea and dual-use imports from China that have helped sustain arms production.
Trump himself has acknowledged Moscow’s adaptability: “They’re wily characters and pretty good at avoiding sanctions,” he told reporters.
Notably, one source said Putin is rejecting a U.S. peace offer made earlier this year that included lifting sanctions and recognizing Russia’s control over Crimea and territories seized since 2022. For now, Putin appears set on fighting until he can declare victory—regardless of what Trump demands.