Tensions rise as Islamabad and Kabul fail to agree on dismantling the Pakistan Taliban, sparking fears of a wider border conflict.
A Fragile Truce at Risk
Efforts to defuse the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict appear to be unraveling. After three days of talks in Istanbul, both sides left the table without progress on a key issue: how to dismantle the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the armed group blamed for hundreds of attacks inside Pakistan.
The negotiations — mediated by Qatar and Türkiye — were meant to build on a temporary ceasefire agreed in Doha on October 19, following a week of deadly cross-border fighting that left dozens dead. But by Tuesday, optimism had faded.
Pakistani officials accused the Afghan delegation of backtracking on commitments and receiving “confusing instructions from Kabul.” Meanwhile, Afghan negotiators claimed Islamabad was “disorganized” and “unclear in its demands.”
Despite marathon 18-hour sessions, the two countries remain divided on the future of the Pakistan Taliban, with analysts warning of a looming escalation.
Blame and Breakdown
Pakistan insists that the Afghan Taliban must crack down on the TTP, which it says operates freely from Afghan soil. Kabul denies those claims, arguing that Pakistan’s insecurity is a “domestic issue” driven by its own internal politics.
The Afghan delegation, led by Haji Najib, deputy minister for administrative affairs, accused Islamabad of walking out of meetings and failing to coordinate its negotiating position. Pakistan has not publicly named its representatives.
Recent cross-border clashes have already killed several soldiers and civilians on both sides, heightening fears that the fragile truce could collapse at any moment.
Even US President Donald Trump weighed in, saying during an ASEAN summit in Malaysia that he could “solve the Afghanistan-Pakistan crisis very quickly.” His comment drew mixed reactions, with regional analysts skeptical of Washington’s ability to mediate.
The TTP Question
The TTP, which emerged in 2007 during the US-led “war on terror,” has been a central obstacle to peace. The group seeks to overthrow the Pakistani government, opposes the merger of tribal areas into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and has carried out hundreds of attacks targeting security forces.
While ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban, the TTP operates independently. Yet Pakistan accuses Kabul of harboring the group, as well as others such as the Balochistan Liberation Army and ISIL-Khorasan (ISKP) — allegations Afghanistan rejects.
Experts say that the Afghan Taliban’s reliance on TTP fighters for internal security makes it difficult for Kabul to turn against them. “Their ties are rooted in ideology, not convenience,” explained Islamabad-based analyst Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud.
Deep Distrust and Historical Grievances
Relations between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban have deteriorated sharply since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021. Once allies, the two governments now trade accusations of betrayal and interference.
Baqir Sajjad Syed, a former Wilson Center fellow, said that “profound mutual distrust and conflicting priorities” make a long-term peace unlikely. Pakistan’s past involvement in Afghan politics, he noted, has left deep scars.
“The Taliban view Pakistan’s demands as politically risky,” he said. “They can’t be seen abandoning their ideological allies.”
Rising Violence Across the Border
The violence shows no sign of slowing. In 2024, more than 2,500 Pakistanis — civilians and soldiers alike — were killed in militant attacks, making it the deadliest year in a decade. Early data from 2025 suggests this year could be worse.
According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project, the TTP carried out over 600 attacks against Pakistani forces in the past year, with operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan surging.
For many observers, the pattern is clear: talks are failing while the conflict intensifies.
The Road Ahead
Mediators from Qatar, Türkiye, and China are reportedly preparing a “last-ditch push” to salvage negotiations, possibly moving future talks to another venue. But time is running out.
Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has already warned of an “open war” if Kabul continues to shield militants. Analysts say Islamabad may resort to targeted air strikes on Afghan soil — a move that could spark a full-blown confrontation.
Meanwhile, experts caution that any military action could backfire. “If Pakistan bombs Afghan territory, it risks strengthening Taliban unity and anti-Pakistan sentiment,” said journalist Sami Yousafzai.
He warned that if Taliban leader Haibatullah Akhunzada were to issue a religious decree declaring jihad against Pakistan, thousands of young Afghans could take up arms. “The only winner,” he added, “would be the TTP.”
A Crisis With No Easy End
As both nations dig in, the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict stands at a dangerous crossroads. Deep-rooted mistrust, ideological loyalties, and competing national interests threaten to drag the region into a wider war.
For now, diplomacy remains the only hope — but the window for peace is rapidly closing.