With airstrikes intensifying and ceasefire violations mounting, analysts warn Israel may be edging closer to another war in Lebanon — despite international pressure and regional fatigue.
Is Israel preparing for another war with Lebanon? That’s the question many in the region are asking as Israeli airstrikes continue to pound Lebanese territory almost daily, defying last year’s fragile ceasefire and stirring fears of another devastating conflict.
For months, Israeli leaders have accused the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) of failing to disarm Hezbollah, the powerful political and military group that has clashed with Israel for decades. But analysts say Lebanon has already taken historic steps toward disarmament — steps that Israel itself is undermining through continued attacks.
“There are daily violations of the ceasefire by Israel in Lebanon, and it would be unfair to blame the Lebanese government,” said political analyst Karim Emile Bitar. “The government went above and beyond what was required.”
Ceasefire in Name Only
The November 2024 ceasefire was meant to bring relief after Israel’s brutal war on Lebanon — a campaign that killed more than 4,000 people, mostly civilians, and displaced over a million. Yet, nearly a year later, Israel continues to launch strikes, killing over 100 civilians and preventing many from returning home.
Shepherds, farmers, and reconstruction workers have been targeted, and Hezbollah has responded only once since the ceasefire began. Despite this restraint, Israeli jets still cross into Lebanese airspace daily, deepening mistrust and instability.
“Israeli maximalism today provides fodder to Hezbollah hardliners,” Bitar noted. “Whatever concessions Lebanon makes, Israel seems hellbent on continuing its attacks.”
A Weakened Hezbollah, A Stronger Risk
Hezbollah, long a dominant force in Lebanese politics, has been weakened by last year’s war. Israel’s military campaign killed much of its leadership, destroyed key infrastructure, and cut off vital smuggling routes from Iran. The fall of its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, in December 2024 dealt another blow.
Still, Israel’s pressure continues. Many analysts believe Tel Aviv is using Hezbollah’s disarmament as a pretext for aggression, hoping to exploit the group’s weakened state.
Lebanese writer Karim Safieddine says the government’s disarmament efforts are genuine but unsustainable under current conditions: “Lebanon needs stronger international backing — from France, Saudi Arabia, and the Vatican — to make the process work.”
Hezbollah’s Frustration and Israel’s Politics
In a televised address, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem accused the Lebanese government of yielding to Israeli and U.S. pressure “without any concessions in return.” He warned that Israel’s actions go beyond disarmament, calling them an attack on “the very existence of the Resistance.”
Meanwhile, Israeli domestic politics may be fanning the flames. With elections approaching in 2026, analysts believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is eager to project strength by targeting Iran’s regional allies, including Hezbollah.
“The intensification of Israeli strikes reflects a political willingness to keep the war narrative alive,” said Bitar. “It’s part of a headlong rush to continue conflict.”
Will There Be Another War?
Despite escalating rhetoric, many experts doubt that Israel will launch a full-scale war anytime soon. The military is stretched thin after the prolonged conflict in Gaza, and its strategic gains in Lebanon are limited.
“They hit the entire leadership, stopped the main smuggling routes, and are working on Hezbollah’s financing,” said analyst Qassem Kassir. “If there’s war now, it’s costly and useless.”
Still, uncertainty lingers. Kassir added ominously: “Anything is possible. Everything has its limits in the face of Israeli aggression.”
The Road Ahead
As tensions mount, Lebanon stands at a dangerous crossroads. Its government is caught between international expectations and domestic pressures, while Israel’s actions appear increasingly unpredictable.
What’s clear is that another war would be catastrophic — not just for Lebanon and Israel, but for a region already reeling from years of conflict.
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