A confidential draft to end the Ukraine war has surfaced, revealing bold demands, risky concessions, and competing visions for peace that could reshape Europe’s security landscape.
Talks in Geneva over a US-backed draft peace plan aimed at ending the Ukraine war have wrapped up after a single tense day. American and Ukrainian negotiators dug through the 28-point proposal, originally crafted last month with input from both US and Russian officials. As expected, Ukraine pushed back hard against the plan’s most controversial demands especially those tied to territorial concessions and weakened security guarantees.
Russia, meanwhile, says it hasn’t seen any updates to the document after the Geneva discussions.
One of the most explosive elements in the original draft called for turning parts of eastern Donbas areas still under Ukrainian control — into territory effectively ceded to Moscow. That alone was enough to ignite outrage in Kyiv.
The plan also suggested reducing Ukraine’s military to 600,000 personnel, a significant cut for a nation still fighting an active war.
A Draft Filled With Promises — and Vague Assurances
Several points look appealing at first glance. The proposal reaffirms Ukraine’s sovereignty, promises a “comprehensive non-aggression agreement”, and calls for snap elections within 100 days of a deal.
It even outlines a “robust, coordinated military response” if Russia violates the agreement — a powerful statement on paper.
But crucial details are missing.
Who provides the security guarantees?
What does “robust” mean in reality?
Without a NATO-level commitment, Ukraine would be signing onto a peace built on ambiguous promises, not enforceable protection.
The Most Contentious Demands: Land and Military Power
Some proposals go straight to Ukraine’s deepest red lines.
Territory:
The draft says Ukrainian forces must withdraw from parts of Donetsk they control. These areas including Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka are home to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and hold massive strategic value. Giving them up is politically and emotionally unthinkable for most Ukrainians.
Military Size:
Ukraine’s current military sits at an estimated 880,000 active personnel. Cutting it to 600,000 during or after the Ukraine war feels like an intrusion into national sovereignty and Ukraine’s UN representative Khrystyna Hayovyshyn has already said plainly that Kyiv “will not accept any limits” on its defensive capabilities.
Recognition of Occupied Territories:
The draft would designate Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk as “de facto Russian.” That wording is carefully chosen not legal recognition, but acknowledgment of reality. Still, this is a heavy concession and one that could ignite fierce backlash among Ukrainians.
Ukraine’s Future: Europe Yes, NATO No
The proposal also reshapes Ukraine’s long-term direction:
No NATO membership — ever.
NATO must formally state Ukraine cannot join.
Ukraine may move forward on EU integration, with temporary accelerated access to European markets.
But Kyiv has already said it won’t accept having its sovereign right to choose alliances restricted and NATO membership is written directly into Ukraine’s constitution.
The draft also prohibits NATO troops in Ukraine but stations European fighter jets in Poland, a move intended to reassure Kyiv without provoking Moscow.
Russia’s Path Back Into the Global Economy
Surprisingly, several points focus not on Ukraine, but on Russia’s international status.
The draft proposes:
Reintegrating Russia into the global economy
Potentially restoring its place in a G8-style group
Allowing staged lifting of sanctions
For many Western nations especially those facing domestic pressure after years of aggression these ideas will be difficult to swallow.
The Question of Frozen Russian Assets
The plan suggests using $100 billion of frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s reconstruction. The US would receive 50% of the profits, and Europe would be expected to invest an additional $100 billion.
With Ukraine’s reconstruction currently estimated at over $500 billion, analysts say this amount barely scratches the surface.
What’s Missing — and Why It Matters
Notably absent are restrictions on Ukraine’s growing long-range missile program, including systems like the Long Neptune. The only clear rule: if Ukraine strikes Moscow or St. Petersburg, the security guarantee collapses.
Otherwise, the draft is silent and that silence leaves room for future conflict.
Is This the Final Plan?
No.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the plan is a framework, not a finished deal. Negotiations continue, and both Ukraine and European allies have raised major concerns.
Turkey, France, Germany, and the UK are reportedly circulating their own alternative proposals, though the US has publicly denied seeing them.
President Trump once pushed for a rapid timeline, but after widespread criticism, he now says it is not his “final offer.”
A Putin Wishlist — or a US Strategy?
Confusion surrounds the authorship of the draft. Some US senators were told the document mirrors Russia’s preferred outcome, while the White House insists it is a US-designed proposal informed by all sides.
Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev’s close involvement raises eyebrows — especially since several provisions appear highly favorable to Moscow.
Still, if NATO-related commitments are too vague, Kremlin hardliners may reject it as insufficient.
The Bottom Line
The leaked peace plan for the Ukraine war is ambitious, controversial, and deeply divisive. It attempts to bridge irreconcilable positions between Kyiv and Moscow while giving Washington room to maneuver.
But the biggest question remains:
Can a peace built on partial concessions and vague guarantees ever hold?
The world especially Ukraine is waiting for that answer.
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