U.S. waivers and supply disruptions push Russian oil prices near parity with Brent amid global energy chaos
The ongoing Iran conflict has inadvertently benefited Russia, boosting oil sales and giving President Vladimir Putin a sudden economic advantage, analysts say.
By disrupting about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, the war has put a premium on remaining barrels, including Russian crude. Urals oil, normally discounted, has surged to near parity with Brent, trading around $100 per barrel in early March.
U.S. Waivers and Russian Gains
Earlier this month, the United States issued a 30-day waiver allowing countries to buy Russian oil already at sea without facing sanctions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the move as “short-term” and unlikely to benefit Moscow significantly.
However, Russian officials, including Kirill Dmitriev, argue the easing has resurrected Russia’s oil revenues and bolstered confidence. Analysts estimate Russia earned roughly $7 billion in fossil fuel sales in the first two weeks of March alone.
“It has actually rescued Russia’s oil revenues from decline,” said Wichita State University professor Usha Haley.
Global Oil Market Impact
The Iran war has destabilized the global oil supply, especially after Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes. In response, the U.S. has released 172 million barrels from strategic reserves and allowed Iranian oil already on vessels to reach the market.
Despite these efforts, analysts warn that easing sanctions on Russian oil does not significantly increase global supply, as much of the crude already enters markets through clandestine channels.
Political and Strategic Consequences
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has criticized the move, saying revenue from Russian energy sales funds weapons used against Ukraine. Meanwhile, Putin has signaled intentions to capitalize on the spike in demand, emphasizing long-term cooperation opportunities with Europe if political restrictions are lifted.
Dmitriev, Moscow’s special economic envoy, even boasted on social media that Europe will face rising energy costs as a result of Russia’s strengthened position in global oil markets.
“The global energy market cannot remain stable without Russian oil,” Dmitriev wrote, highlighting the geopolitical leverage Russia has gained amid the crisis.
Source: Fortune