Iraq is carefully navigating its position amid rising regional tensions as Iran-backed armed groups within its borders launch attacks on Israel. These escalating strikes, occurring alongside Israel’s military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon, have left Iraq balancing a complex alliance between the U.S. and Iran, a situation it aims to manage without becoming embroiled in wider regional warfare.
While Iraq has no formal diplomatic ties with Israel, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani’s government is keenly aware of the potential risks these attacks bring, as Iraq strives to maintain its current period of relative stability. High oil revenues have fueled a domestic agenda focused on rebuilding infrastructure and revitalizing communities across Iraq. However, ongoing hostilities from groups like Kataib Hezbollah and Nujaba have sparked concern that Iraq may face repercussions, including possible retaliatory strikes from Israel.
Efforts by the Iraqi government to persuade these Iran-backed militias to ceasefire have encountered resistance. According to sources within these factions and Iraqi government officials, two recent diplomatic missions to Tehran by Iraq’s top security representatives seeking assistance in controlling these groups have not succeeded. Tehran’s stance, reportedly dismissive, emphasized that the factions in question make their own decisions and should determine their level of involvement in support of Palestinians in Gaza and Lebanon.
In light of limited success with Tehran, Iraq has reached out to the United States, seeking support in mitigating potential Israeli retaliation. The U.S., recognizing the delicacy of Iraq’s position, has expressed an understanding of Baghdad’s concerns and committed to diplomatic efforts to help reduce further escalation. However, militia leaders, primarily those from Kataib Hezbollah, have continued to press forward with their actions, warning the Iraqi government against interference. For these groups, Israel’s ongoing campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon are driving forces behind their continued strikes.
Internally, the escalation has sparked debate within Iraq’s ruling coalition. While united in support of the Palestinian cause, some coalition members fear that Iraq could face severe consequences from Israel if these attacks persist. According to Shiite lawmaker Ahmed Kenani and several other coalition figures, the preference among many Iraqi leaders is for militias to relocate their activities to the active combat zones in Gaza or Lebanon, thereby sparing Iraq the risks associated with a direct confrontation with Israel.
A senior adviser to Prime Minister Sudani, Abul Ameer Thuaiban, echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that while Iraq stands with Palestinians, involvement in a direct conflict with Israel could prove disastrous. Nonetheless, Kataib Hezbollah and other factions view Israel and the United States as liable for recent strikes on Iran, vowing that both nations would “pay a price” for their actions. As a result, Iraq remains caught in the crosshairs of a complex regional dynamic, striving to maintain its stability while reconciling competing pressures from within and beyond its borders.