With Hezbollah rebuilding its military strength, Israel’s military and intelligence circles warn that a new offensive may be imminent — as US pressure on Beirut to disarm the group intensifies.
Israel is reportedly preparing for a multi-day military operation targeting Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure across Lebanon, amid growing fears that the armed group is rebuilding its strength.
According to several Israeli media outlets on November 4 and 5, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are drafting plans for a “several-day” operation that would strike Hezbollah facilities in southern Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and areas north of the Litani River. While reports did not specify whether a ground invasion is on the table, Israel has conducted limited raids and airstrikes into Lebanese territory since the November 2024 ceasefire.
Hezbollah’s Rebuilding Sparks Alarm
Recent intelligence assessments suggest that Hezbollah is reconstituting its forces, producing new weapons domestically and smuggling arms from Syria. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly convened a special session on November 4 to discuss the group’s renewed rocket smuggling operations.
Israeli intelligence officers warned that Hezbollah’s ammunition production now outpaces IDF destruction efforts, and that the group could cross Israel’s “red line” on offensive capability within months. Hezbollah’s reconstruction of its military infrastructure, including north of the Litani River, has only heightened concerns.
Pressure on Lebanon to Act
Both Israeli and US officials have warned Lebanon that a new Israeli operation could follow if Beirut fails to rein in Hezbollah. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) had previously agreed to a 2025 plan requiring Hezbollah’s disarmament south of the Litani River — but progress has been minimal.
An Israeli official told local media that Israel would conduct “focused and targeted operations” if the LAF continues to avoid disarming the group. Another Israeli journalist noted on November 5 that Israel is escalating its threats to push Lebanon toward compliance.
Meanwhile, US Special Envoy Thomas Barrack reportedly informed Lebanese officials that Israel “will be able” to strike if the LAF fails to act by the end of November 2025 — a statement interpreted as tacit US approval for limited Israeli action.
Iran and Belarus Deepen Military Ties
In a parallel development, Iran is seeking to enhance its air defense and electronic warfare capabilities through cooperation with Belarus. Iranian Air Force Commander Brigadier General Hamid Vahedi met with Belarusian Air Defense Forces Commander Major General Andrei Lukyanovich during a four-day visit to Belarus (November 2–5).
The two sides discussed expanding defense cooperation, including visits to Belarusian military academies and air bases. Tehran has shown strong interest in acquiring advanced radar, EW systems, and air defense platforms, such as Russia’s S-400 and Su-35 fighter jets.
Analysts note that Belarus’ defense industry is deeply integrated with Russia’s military supply chain, meaning Minsk is unlikely to transfer sensitive systems to Iran without Moscow’s approval. However, the move signals Tehran’s continued drive to bolster its regional deterrence network — particularly as tensions with Israel remain high.
A Fragile Regional Balance
As Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran maneuver amid overlapping crises, the risk of a wider Middle East conflict remains very real.
Israel’s warnings and US diplomacy indicate a tightening timeline — one that could redefine the Lebanon-Israel border dynamic if a new round of fighting erupts.
For now, all eyes remain on Beirut and Jerusalem, as each side weighs its next move in an already volatile standoff.