Israel’s recent offensive against Hezbollah has escalated into a fierce and deadly conflict, marked by intense airstrikes and strategic maneuvers. This new wave of violence began with the detonation of weaponized pagers and radios, followed by a series of devastating airstrikes. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant described the latest strikes as a “masterpiece,” claiming that they inflicted severe damage on Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. He stated that thousands of rockets, which could have endangered Israeli civilians, were destroyed. However, the offensive has also resulted in significant civilian casualties in Lebanon, with over 550 people killed, including 50 children.
Israel’s High-Stakes Strategy
Israel’s leadership is betting that a relentless offensive will pressure Hezbollah into submission. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes that by escalating the conflict, Israel can shift the balance of power in its favor and deter Hezbollah from launching further rocket attacks across the border. This strategy is driven by the desire for a decisive victory, especially as the conflict in Gaza drags on without resolution. Despite extensive planning by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Mossad, a clear victory against Hezbollah remains elusive.
The current offensive has its roots in the long-standing rivalry between Israel and Hezbollah, dating back to the 1980s. The most recent flare-up began the day after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7th, prompting Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to order daily attacks across the border in support of Hamas. This move tied up Israeli troops and forced tens of thousands of people in border towns to flee their homes.
The Ghost of Gaza
Israel’s recent actions in Lebanon echo its year-long war in Gaza, where it has faced fierce resistance from Hamas. In both conflicts, Israel has issued warnings to civilians to evacuate before launching attacks, citing the need to target militants hiding among the civilian population. However, these warnings have been criticized for being too vague, leaving civilians vulnerable to the devastating consequences of the strikes.
Hezbollah, like Hamas, has been accused of using civilians as human shields. However, this does not absolve Israel from accusations of violating the rules of war, which demand the protection of civilians and prohibit indiscriminate and disproportionate use of force. One controversial attack involved the detonation of pagers issued to Hezbollah operatives. Israel could not have known the exact location of the operatives at the time, resulting in civilian casualties and raising questions about Israel’s compliance with international law.
A Painful History Repeated
Israel’s conflicts with Hezbollah have historically been protracted and inconclusive, often devolving into grinding wars of attrition. The last major war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 ended in a stalemate, with neither side able to claim a decisive victory. Despite heavy losses inflicted on Hezbollah, the group’s ability and will to fight were not diminished.
Israel’s assumption that a relentless offensive will break Hezbollah’s resolve is a risky gamble. Most observers believe that Hezbollah, which views fighting Israel as its raison d’être, will not back down easily. If Israel’s strategy fails, it could be forced to escalate the war further, possibly leading to a ground invasion of southern Lebanon to create a buffer zone.
The Challenges of a Ground Offensive
A ground invasion would be a daunting challenge for Israel. Hezbollah has been preparing for such a scenario since 2006, fortifying its positions in the rugged terrain of southern Lebanon. Unlike in Gaza, where Hamas fighters operate in densely populated urban areas, Hezbollah would be defending its home ground, using guerrilla tactics honed over decades of conflict. The last time Israel launched a major ground invasion of Lebanon in 1982, it ended in an ignominious retreat after fierce resistance from Hezbollah and widespread condemnation of Israel’s conduct in the Sabra and Shatila massacre.
Israel’s leaders may be celebrating their recent successes against Hezbollah, but the future of the conflict remains uncertain. The offensive may have dealt a heavy blow to Hezbollah’s capabilities, but it has not eliminated the group’s will to fight. As the war drags on, the risk of further escalation looms large, and Israel may find itself embroiled in another protracted and costly conflict without a clear path to victory.