OPEC+ warns slow recovery as war disrupts oil supply and pushes global oil prices higher
Global energy markets are under pressure as OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to a modest oil output increase, while warning that recovery will be slow amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The group announced a 206,000 barrels per day increase for May, but the move is largely seen as symbolic, as several key producers are struggling to boost output due to supply disruptions.
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Disrupts Oil Supply
The ongoing conflict linked to tensions involving Iran and the United States has severely impacted the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global oil route.
The strait has been effectively blocked since late February
Major exporters like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq have seen exports disrupted
Up to 15% of global oil supply has been affected
This has created a major shock to global energy markets, driving uncertainty and volatility.
Limited Impact of Output Increase
Eight OPEC+ members—including Russia and Algeria—approved the increase during a virtual meeting.
However:
The boost represents less than 2% of lost supply
Some countries lack the capacity to raise production quickly
Infrastructure damage from attacks is costly and slow to repair
The group emphasized its commitment to market stability, but acknowledged ongoing risks.
Oil Prices Surge Amid War Fears
The supply crunch has already pushed oil prices sharply higher:
Crude prices are nearing $120 per barrel
Analysts warn prices could exceed $150 if disruptions continue
Rising costs are impacting fuel and transport worldwide
The situation reflects growing concerns over a prolonged energy crisis.
Diplomatic Efforts and Rising Tensions
Efforts are underway to ease the crisis. Oman has initiated talks with Iran to ensure safe passage through the strait.
Meanwhile, Iraq has been granted limited transit access, with at least one tanker successfully passing through.
However, tensions remain high after Donald Trump warned of further escalation, including potential strikes on civilian infrastructure, if the strait is not reopened.
Slow Road to Recovery
OPEC+ signaled that while it stands ready to increase production further, a full recovery depends on reopening key routes and stabilizing the region.
Until then, global markets are likely to face continued volatility, with energy supply remaining uncertain.
Source: Al Jazeera