Paramilitary raids, mass displacement, and looming siege by the RSF are compounding the humanitarian disaster in Sudan’s civil war-torn North Kordofan.
On the morning of June 25, gunfire shattered the calm in Sudan’s North Kordofan as the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched a brutal raid on the village of Kazkeel. Among those forced to flee was 60-year-old Hamisa, who escaped with her teenage children, mother, and siblings as RSF fighters torched homes, fired on fleeing civilians, and gunned down local youth who tried to resist.
“We left with nothing but the clothes on our backs,” Hamisa told Al Jazeera, recounting the horror of seeing six young men killed in front of her.
The assault is part of a wider campaign by the RSF, whose attacks are intensifying the already dire humanitarian crisis gripping North Kordofan. The region has become a focal point in the ongoing civil war between the RSF and Sudan’s regular army, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which erupted in April 2023.
An Escalating Conflict
What began as a power struggle between military factions has escalated into one of the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophes. Recent RSF raids have left families burned alive, pregnant women and children dead, and entire villages displaced.
Tens of thousands have fled to the SAF-controlled city of el-Obeid, the provincial capital and a critical military and humanitarian hub in central Sudan. But even there, safety is uncertain. Displaced families like Hamisa’s now live in overcrowded shelters, with barely enough food or water. Fears are growing that the RSF may soon encircle and besiege the city once again.
“The children are scared the RSF will enter el-Obeid,” said Hamisa. “Everyone is still traumatised.”
The RSF previously laid siege to the city earlier this year. The SAF broke that siege in February, but with new offensives underway and Sudan’s rainy season about to begin, analysts warn that el-Obeid could fall again.
Strategic Stakes
El-Obeid holds immense strategic value. The SAF depends on it to coordinate air strikes on RSF positions in Darfur and to defend the capital, Khartoum. Nathaniel Raymond of Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Lab warns that if SAF loses el-Obeid, it would severely weaken their military reach.
“The start of the rainy season could give the RSF cover for a major assault,” Raymond explained. “It’s the sweet spot: the skies are clouded, but roads are still passable.”
The city is also the last lifeline for besieged civilians in other regions. Any attack on el-Obeid would force some 137,000 internally displaced people to flee again—likely to Kosti in White Nile state, more than 265 kilometers away.
“These are elderly people, women, babies, and the disabled,” said Emmanuel Ufot, Mercy Corps’ Emergency Programs Director in North Sudan. “They won’t be able to run if conflict breaks out again.”
No Safe Haven
Inside el-Obeid, the humanitarian situation is grim. Only 5% of displaced people have solid shelter, while the rest live in makeshift huts or out in the open. Relief workers fear that the coming rains could unleash deadly outbreaks of cholera and other diseases in the overcrowded camps.
Meanwhile, RSF shelling continues. Artillery and drone strikes have hit homes, hospitals, and critical infrastructure, including power stations. Local volunteer Yousef Hederby reported that four civilians were killed and 20 injured in mid-July alone, with more than 300 people massacred in nearby villages between July 12 and 15.
Despite repeated attempts, RSF officials have not responded to accusations of deliberately targeting civilians and carrying out mass killings.
As the rainy season approaches, el-Obeid stands on a knife’s edge. If the RSF launches a full-scale assault, the consequences for civilians—already reeling from displacement, hunger, and trauma—could be catastrophic.