As Israel pushes for Hamas to surrender its weapons, disagreements over disarmament, security, and control of Gaza risk derailing the fragile ceasefire agreement backed by the United States.
The question of whether Hamas will hand over its weapons could become the biggest obstacle to achieving a permanent Gaza ceasefire. While both sides have agreed in principle to a U.S.-brokered truce, deep divisions remain over disarmament, governance, and security control in the war-torn enclave.
Israel’s Demand for Total Disarmament
For Israel, disarmament is non-negotiable. Officials insist that Hamas must surrender all weapons, dissolve as an organization, and relinquish control of Gaza’s administration if the two-year war is to end. Israel argues that only a full demilitarization of Hamas can guarantee lasting peace and prevent future attacks.
However, Hamas has publicly rejected these terms. Behind closed doors, though, experts say the group has shown a limited willingness to compromise. According to Hugh Lovatt, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), Hamas has signaled openness to a partial decommissioning of its offensive weapons — such as longer-range missiles — but not a total disarmament.
“This is where we’ve seen the biggest shift in Hamas’s position,” Lovatt explained. “They might be open to giving up some weapons, but not all.”
Ceasefire at Risk
Analysts warn that these disagreements could torpedo the ceasefire and reignite hostilities. Hamas maintains that armed resistance is its right under international humanitarian law, which allows occupied peoples to defend themselves.
Historically, Israel and its Western allies have demanded Palestinian factions give up weapons as a precondition for peace, much like the framework that underpinned the Oslo Accords in the 1990s.
But according to Azmi Keshawi, a researcher with the International Crisis Group (ICG) in Gaza, Hamas will not completely disarm. “They may surrender offensive weapons but will never give up small arms or their tunnel network,” he said. “Hamas will only hand over its weapons to a future Palestinian state — not to Israel.”
Power Vacuum and Security Concerns
Hamas’s role in maintaining internal security in Gaza complicates the disarmament debate. Other armed groups — such as Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), and the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades — still operate in the enclave, and the ongoing war has created power vacuums exploited by local gangs.
“Hamas is needed to maintain order,” said Gaza-based analyst Taghreed Khodary. “Israel created these gangs by arming them, and now Hamas is the only force capable of stopping chaos.”
Lovatt added that Hamas might be willing to cooperate with an international task force overseeing a partial decommissioning, but only if that mission’s mandate excludes counterterrorism operations. “If the force is seen as serving Israel’s goals,” he warned, “Hamas will reject it.”
Hamas as an Idea, Not Just a Force
Even if Hamas loses its arsenal, experts believe the movement’s ideology of resistance will persist. “Hamas is more than an organization — it’s an idea,” said Keshawi. “It represents defiance and survival for many Palestinians.”
As negotiations continue, the future of the ceasefire may depend on whether Western leaders, led by U.S. President Donald Trump, can restrain Israel’s demands for total demilitarization.
“If Israel convinces Western capitals that Hamas must be completely disarmed before ending the occupation,” Lovatt cautioned, “it will give Israel another pretext to avoid real peace — just as it did after the Oslo Accords.”