As former U.S. President Donald Trump pushes for a fast-track peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appears increasingly unconvinced — and for good reason. According to political analysts and close observers of the situation, the terms being floated by Trump would not only undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty but also risk political destabilization at home.
The proposed deal reportedly includes Ukraine accepting the loss of Crimea and other Russian-occupied territories without any meaningful security guarantees. It also requires Kyiv to abandon its NATO aspirations, a condition that directly contradicts Ukraine’s constitution and the will of its people. For Zelensky, the deal is a nonstarter — and any attempt to pass it through Ukraine’s legislature would almost certainly fail.
Zelensky seems acutely aware of what’s at stake. Observers believe he has concluded that Trump’s peace initiative primarily serves Russian interests, with Trump seeking to reset U.S.-Russia relations even at Ukraine’s expense. The Ukrainian leader likely sees Trump’s motivations as more about headlines and legacy — particularly the potential for a Nobel Peace Prize — than about Ukraine’s long-term stability or sovereignty.
Trump, by contrast, appears to view Ukraine as the weaker partner in these negotiations — one that can be pressured into accepting terms that benefit the U.S. and Russia, but not Kyiv. There is little indication that Trump has considered how such a deal would affect Ukraine’s internal politics, economy, or social fabric.
Faced with this geopolitical squeeze, Zelensky appears to be playing a strategic waiting game. Aware that Trump may proceed with a deal regardless of Kyiv’s input, the Ukrainian president is working to draw down remaining U.S. aid — part of the $61 billion package approved under President Joe Biden — while simultaneously securing new financial and military support from European allies.
Zelensky’s strategy, it seems, is to hold the line and bide time. His aim is to build Ukraine’s military resilience, particularly in areas where a potential U.S. pullback would leave significant gaps — including in missile defense systems like Patriots, HIMARS, and ATACMS. By doing so, he hopes to sustain Ukraine’s long-term defense capabilities, even if the immediate diplomatic landscape shifts unfavorably.
Privately, Zelensky may be hoping that Putin, rather than Ukraine, will be the party to walk away from negotiations. However, given Trump’s well-documented admiration for the Russian leader, this outcome appears unlikely. Instead, Zelensky is likely preparing for a long war, one where Ukraine’s strength on the battlefield and diplomatic support abroad become key strategic assets.
Even if Trump and Putin succeed in crafting a deal without Ukraine’s agreement, there are limits to what Russia can achieve militarily. With its forces stretched and its economy under strain, Moscow may find it difficult to capitalize on any political gains gifted by the West. In this light, a Trump-brokered agreement may ultimately prove to be a hollow victory for the Kremlin — a deal made without Ukrainian consent, and one impossible to enforce.
As the situation unfolds, Zelensky’s cautious approach reflects a broader understanding of the geopolitical stakes. For Ukraine, the battle for sovereignty continues — not just on the front lines, but in the negotiating rooms where its future is being debated, often without its voice.